UK monthly commentary
European monthly commentary
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Living on borrowed time (PDF)
Update on the US economy
(30 April 2011)
Seeking the Holy Grail, by George! (PDF)
UK Budget 2011
(23 March 2011)
A twin shock for the global economy (PDF)
International economic update
(17 March 2011)
The UK economy at a glance
The table below shows key indicators for the UK economy, incorporating the current HSBC forecast.
UK Economic Forecast |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| annual % change (except where otherwise stated) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2011 | 2012 | |||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | |||||
| GDP | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| GDP (quarterly % growth) | - | - | - | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |
| Consumer spending | 0.7 | -0.7 | 1.5 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Government spending | 1.0 | 0.8 | -1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.5 | -1.2 | |
| Investment | 3.6 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 | |
| Stockbuilding (% GDP) | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | |
| Domestic demand | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Exports | 5.2 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | |
| Imports | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | |
| Manufacturing output | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Unemployment (% ILO rate) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.3 | |
| Average earnings | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | |
| Inflation - RPI | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | |
| Inflation - CPI | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | |
| Current account (% of GDP) | -3.2 | -2.1 | -1.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Public sector net borrowing 1 (% of GDP) | 10.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Exchange rate2 US$/£ | 1.57 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.66 | |
| Exchange rate2 £/€ | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | |
| UK Bank Rate 2 (%) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| 10-year bond yield 2 (%) | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | |
1 Fiscal years (2010 = FY10/11, 2011 = FY11/12, and 2012 = FY12/13).
2 At end-period.
Forecasts are as at 30 June 2011; data and forecasts are subject to revision
Sources: ONS / Thomson Datastream / HSBC.
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