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FX Trends: G10 FX: Focus on “relativity”

25 Mar 2024

Key takeaways

  • After a Fed fixation so far this year, the FX market is finally acknowledging that exchange rates are a relative story.
  • A lack of ‘events’ may limit the scope for FX breakouts…
  • …we see downside risks to the GBP and NZD; and intervention risks around the JPY and CHF.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC

Explanation of terms

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