Investment Daily: US stocks and Treasury yields rose on Election Day

4 November 2026

US stocks rose on Tuesday amid a rebound in AI-related shares. The S&P 500 ended 0.4% higher.

US Treasuries fell (yields rose), with the midterm elections and the Treasury refunding plan in focus. 10-year yields climbed 5bp to 4.96%.

European stocks fell on Tuesday ahead of the US midterm elections. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 0.5% lower. The German DAX fell 0.4%, and the French CAC lost 0.3%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 declined 1.1%.

European government bonds mostly fell (yields rose). 10-year German bund yields rose 4bp to 3.33%, and 10-year French bond yields increased 5bp to 4.95%. In the UK, 10-year gilt yields increased 7bp to 5.26%.

Asian stock markets traded mixed but mostly lower on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious amid continued US tech sell-offs and ahead of the midterm elections. South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.6%, as semiconductor heavyweights weakened. China’s Shanghai Composite declined 0.8%, whereas Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.6%. Elsewhere, India’s Sensex rallied 1.6%, led by gains in financials amid lower oil prices.

Crude oil prices ended a choppy session modestly lower on Tuesday. WTI for December delivery settled 0.4% lower at USD96.1 a barrel. 

In the US, JOLTS job openings unexpectedly jumped to a four-month high of 7.52mn in September, indicating a resilient labour market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote, while Governor Bullock signalled the bank’s wait-and-see approach after the latest rate hikes.   

In the US, the ISM services index is expected to remain at a robust level consistent with solid growth.

Banco Central do Brasil’s monetary policy outlook is unclear with increased fiscal uncertainty and a tight labour market offsetting growth concern.

In the Eurozone, higher gas prices should lift headline inflation. Core inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.5% yoy.