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Investment Daily: US stocks closed a choppy session lower, while Treasuries rose

21 November 2025

Key takeaways

  • US stocks and Treasury yields fell.
  • European stocks rose, while government bonds were mixed.
  • Asian stocks traded mostly higher.

Markets

US stocks closed a volatile session lower on Thursday amid ongoing investor concern over lofty tech valuations, despite a major chipmaker’s upbeat earnings. A higher-than-expected September jobless rate also fuelled worries about the labour market outlook. The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq declining 2.2%.

US Treasuries rose (yields down) following a rise in unemployment rate and stock market weakness. 10-year yields dropped 6bp to 4.08%.

European stocks rose on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 0.5% higher. The German DAX advanced 0.5% while the French CAC gained 0.3%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.2%.

European government bonds lacked clear direction.10-year German bund yields were little changed at 2.72% (+1bp), and 10-year French bond yields rose 3bp to 3.49%. However, UK 10-year gilt yields fell 2bp to 4.58%.

Asian stock markets mostly rose on Thursday, with regional tech shares leading the gains as positive earnings from a major US chipmaker renewed tech/AI optimism. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.6%, while Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.9%. India’s Sensex also added 0.5%. Chinese equities lagged, with Shanghai Composite down 0.4% despite potential property-sector support. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed nearly flat.

Crude oil prices edged lower on Thursday amid eased concerns over geopolitical risks. WTI for December delivery settled 0.5% lower at USD59.1 a barrel.

Key Data Releases and Events

Releases yesterday

In the US, change in non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, rising 119k in September, up from -4k in August.  The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reflecting a 251k increase in employment and a 470k increase in the size of the labour force.  Other indicators point to continued cooling in the jobs market.

Releases due today (21 November 2025)

In Japan, both headline and core CPI (excluding fresh food) inflation increased to 3.0% yoy in October, from 2.9% in September, in line with market expectations.

In the US, the composite PMI has remained in expansion territory during 2025, in contrast to the downbeat ISM manufacturing survey.

In the eurozone, composite PMI is expected to remain at 52.5. Business sentiment has improved since the summer, aided by increased domestic demand. Hiring intentions have increased.

In the UK, composite PMI is likely to drop to 51.8 in November, from 52.2, as rising tax worries are likely to weigh on business confidence. 

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