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Investment Daily: US stocks and Treasuries rose on softer-than-expected CPI data

19 December 2025

Key takeaways

  • US stocks and Treasuries rose.
  • European stocks and government bonds rose.
  • Asian stocks mostly fell.

Markets

US stocks rose on Thursday, following inflation data and led by a rebound in technology shares. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%.

US Treasuries rose as softer-than-expected November CPI inflation data supported investor expectations of Fed rate cuts next year. 10-year yields fell 3bp to 4.12%.

European stocks rose on Thursday as US inflation slowed unexpectedly in November. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 1.1% higher. The German DAX gained 1.0% while the French CAC rose 0.8%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 ended 0.6% higher.

European government bonds mostly rose. 10-year German and French bond yields edged 1bp lower to 2.85% and 3.56% respectively. In the UK, 10-year gilt yields closed at 4.48% (+1bp).

Asian stock markets ended mostly lower on Thursday, tracking overnight US market losses, amid renewed investor concerns over leading AI companies’ lofty valuations and high investment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 1.0%, as the Bank of Japan started its two-day meeting, while Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. India’s Sensex ended 0.1% lower.

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday. WTI crude for January delivery settled 0.4% higher at USD56.2 a barrel.

Key Data Releases and Events

Releases yesterday

The European Central Bank kept its policy rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting, amid still sticky services inflation and resilient growth.

In the UK, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%, as expected, with disinflation seen as being more "established", but the Governor signalled caution on further cuts.

In the US, inflation surprised notably to the downside, coming out at 2.7% yoy in November, from 3.0% yoy in October, but the government shutdown means that the data may have been less reliable than normal.

Japan’s core CPI inflation (excl. fresh food) stayed at 3.0% yoy for a second month, signalling sustained price pressure. Services sector inflation has been stable recently.

Mexico’s central bank lowered its policy rate by another 25bp to 7.00%, but disappointing core inflation data raise the risk of a pause in the near-term.

Releases due today (19 December 2025)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% amid recent growth-inflation data. The market focus will likely be on how the BoJ communicates the pace of rate hikes ahead and the terminal rate level.

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